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That’s right, this is Part 2.
The initial article, “Rebuild or Ruin: A data analysis on transfer overhauls,” was published on Total Football Analysis in October 2022.
As we approach 2 1⁄2 years since the original analysis, it’s time for an update.
The key difference from the previous data analysis is that we’re going to focus solely on the Premier League.
We want to continue investigating the statistics that date back to the 2017/18 season across both articles.
The content from the original article is well worth a read, and we’re building upon it here.
To summarize that first data analysis briefly, a combination of stability and gradual player movement led to the best results, at least for the majority of teams.
Will that original thesis hold up?
At least one Premier League club would like to have a word with us.
Premier League Clubs & Reliance On New Signings
Since the initial data analysis, we have collected another 2 1⁄2 seasons worth of data.
One key difference is that this time, we’ve expanded the database to include all competitive matches clubs played while also competing in the Premier League.
The rationale is that, over the full season, we will get a more complete picture of which clubs have relied most heavily on their new signings.
We’ve built a database with each team’s transfer activity, noting the number of minutes each new signing contributed to their first season.
We’re covering the 2022/23, 2023/24, and what we have so far from the 2024/25 campaigns.
EPL Table Movement By Year & Minutes By New Signings
We’ll continue to examine the percentage of minutes played by new signings, but from a different perspective.
Specifically, we want to see if a team’s outcome improved or worsened from the previous year and if there is any correlation with the percentage of minutes played by new signings.
Starting with the 2022/23 campaign, the top left and bottom right quadrants are the most populated.
Of the clubs that allocated fewer minutes to new signings, only Liverpool and Leicester City performed worse than the previous season.
Meanwhile, of the returning clubs, only Manchester United managed to improve their position in the table while receiving 25% or more of their minutes from new signings.
The Premier League Relegation Zone
For the newly promoted teams, the only goal is survival.
After the success of the newly promoted teams from 2022/23, the current trio and the ones before them have greatly struggled to compete and survive.
Looking at the number of new signings who earned Premier League minutes and the percentage of the team’s total minutes that they contributed, Nottingham Forest certainly takes the most extreme approach.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth and Fulham have taken a more balanced approach.
Conclusion
Back in the initial analysis, we concluded that cohesiveness with a gradual replenishment tended to produce the best results.
By and large, that theory still holds up.
For the top teams, stability is incredibly important and connected to an identity.
For clubs at the other end of the spectrum, we have examples of aggressive, balanced, and more stable approaches leading to success.
Nottingham Forest offers an intriguing case study in squad building, while Chelsea’s rebuild has taken more time.
As we close out the season, look for squad stability to continue producing the best results.
Key Takeaways:
– Stability and gradual player movement tend to lead to the best results for most teams
– Newly promoted teams have struggled to replicate the success of the 2022/23 class
– Nottingham Forest’s aggressive approach has been an outlier, while Bournemouth and Fulham have found more balance
– Top teams prioritize stability and identity, while lower-table clubs have more flexibility in their squad-building strategies
– Maintaining a solid defensive foundation appears to be important for survival in the Premier League
Call to Action:
Keep an eye on the unique squad-building approaches in the Premier League, as they can provide valuable insights into the keys to success at different levels of the table. The data analysis presented here offers a fascinating glimpse into the complex world of transfer strategy and its impact on a team’s performance.
